Dempster-Shafer Theory Based Uncertainty Models for Assessing Hereditary, BRCA1/2-Related Cancer Risk (Artikel)

Aus Kompetenzportal
Wechseln zu: Navigation, Suche
Dempster-Shafer Theory Based Uncertainty Models for Assessing Hereditary, BRCA1/2-Related Cancer Risk (Artikel)
Autor Ekaterina Auer, Wolfram Luther
In: Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management, Hannover, Germany
Ausgabe
ISBN/ISSN: 978-981-18-5184-1
Erscheinungsjahr 2022
Jahrgang 2022
Seitenzahl 755 – 762
Hyperlink https://rpsonline.com.sg/rps2prod/isrerm2022/epro/html/GS-03-079.xml
Review peer

We investigate possibilities for modeling uncertainty in the context of assessing hereditary, BRCA1/2-related cancer risk. For that purpose, we overview and evaluate studies with large groups of participants of various ethnicities with standardized data selection policy. Risk classes for deleterious gene mutations are described there by mean values with confidence intervals or percent intervals of lower and upper bounds of risk. It is difficult to extrapolate the results obtained for the selected cohort if, for example, the families in the sample already have an increased basic risk or if risks of individual persons and their family are mixed. Often, intervals obtained from the studies which metastudies rely on are summarized without calibration of the average mutation risk, leading to dramatic overestimations and inconsistencies. In this paper, we demonstrate ways in which study results can be interpreted consistently, used for assessing personal/familial risk, and compared with the help of the Dempster-Shafer theory and ground truth (empirical) data.